UAFA in CIR: What does it mean?

I haven't updated this blog for a while, partially due to personal circumstances, partially due to my belief that nothing was going to change for a while.

But things did change. Hope was reignited when the CIR framework released by Democratic senators included languages similar to UAFA, allowing LGBT citizens and permanent residents to sponsor their partners for a greencard.

While the inclusion was certainly a big step forward, we were soon reminded how toxic the issue of CIR is, with President Obama hinting that CIR is unlikely to be passed this year. He still insists that CIR be introduced, but it's clear that he is reluctant to touch the "third rail", as defined by his chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.

Sure enough, today Senator John Kerry and Joe Lieberman unveiled the Senate Energy bill.

One may ask, what does that have to do with CIR? Well, a couple things:

1. The Energy/Climate bill has been competing with CIR for the next spot after the Senate is done with Financial reform. The fact that Democrats only have a framework for CIR while Energy/climate now has a BILL basically says CIR has lost that next spot to Energy;

2. The lone republican who's willing to work with the Dems, Senator Lindsay Graham, voiced his displeasure when President Obama and Senator Harry Reid indicated that work might begin on CIR before the climate bill. Introducing the climate bill first means the Dems still want to retain Graham's support;

3. There's little doubt that CIR is considered more "toxic" than the climate bill, with the GOP gearing up to retake the House in the upcoming midterm election, the Dems are not willing to hand them "red meat", even with the anti-immigrant law in Arizona putting more urgency to CIR.

Call me a pessimist, but I'm not sure if CIR can be passed in the next couple years. Let's face it: If the Dems couldn't bring CIR to the table with a huge majority in both the House and the Senate, then the odds of CIR being passed in a diminished majority (or even a minority) is next to zero.

So my prediction is basically this: Dems will bring up CIR this year, debate it a little, then let it die after the mid-term election. They might bring it up again next year as a talking point, but don't expect passage any time soon.