Is 2013 the year?

Since various Washington insiders (Barney Frank the first among them) have put the chances for the Respect for Marriage Act at zero, the legislative path for a repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act appears dead in the water. Many believe the best hope of repealing DOMA lies with the Supreme Court, through the lawsuit filed by GLAD challenging Section 3 of DOMA.

Legal experts have put the chances of GLAD winning the lawsuit at good. But there is one major problem with the GLAD lawsuit. Even if DOMA is founded to be unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, it would only benefit the people living in the states where gay marriage is legal. In other words, for someone living in Alabama, a state expected to be among the last to grant same-sex marriage rights, getting married in Iowa would not entitle them to the 1000+ federal rights enjoyed by married couples, such as the ability to sponsor their spouse for a greencard.

It'd still be a great victory to the LGBT community, but a limited win at best.

But there is a wild card.

Ted Olson and David Boies, the famous duo known for the Bush vs. Gore recount, have filed a lawsuit to challenge state constitutions (Prop. 8) banning gay marriage. A federal judge has set the court date in Jan. 2010. Like the Glad lawsuit, the Prop. 8 suit is expected to take three years to reach the Supreme Court. That will put the Supreme Court hearing very likely in 2013, the same year GLAD's lawsuit would be heard.

While most legal experts agreed the GLAD lawsuit again DOMA stands a very good chance of winning, opinions are split when it comes to the Prop. 8 lawsuit filed by Olson and Boies. Many believe it's either premature or lacks legal footing. The New York Times hosted a lively discussion on the topic.

So if all the stars aligned and we won both cases in the Supreme Court the marriage and equal rights issues would be settled once and for all. That is, of course, the best case scenario. The facts remain that the Supreme Court is currently center-right, with Judge Anthony Kennedy being the swing vote. Judge Kennedy is considered a conservative but appears to be sympathetic to LGBT causes. It still would be extraordinary for him to cast a favorable vote in both cases.

Yes, it's basically a pie-in-the-sky kind of thing, but a little bit of dreaming wouldn't hurt, right?