Key sponsors of RFA, Rep. Jerry Nadler and Rep. Jared Polis have expressed doubt about RFA being debated anytime soon. According to Rep. Nadler, the discussion probably won't start until (imagine how eager the President would be to bring up the gay issue so close to his reelection), and Rep. Polis said DOMA repeal won't be likely until we have + states offering marriage equality. Right now gay marriage is legal in only five states. New York, the most likely State No. 6 to allow gay marriage, saw that opportunity vaporized as the GM bill got voted down by the NY Senate last week. So to get 10+ states with marriage equality, we're talking about 5 to 10 years.
Of course, by 2013 we should learn the result of the marriage lawsuit, and whatever Congress decides to do by then would be irrelevant.
On the other front, Rep. Nadler is working to get UAFA included in the upcoming Immigration Reform, which would be another uphill battle.
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