More on CIR

According to Politico, Sen. Reid believes he has the floor votes to pass an immigration reform bill-the problem is there isn't floor time to do it.

But the real challenge, according to LA Times, is in the House, where Democrats from conservative/swing districts see CIR as a liability:

The biggest obstacle to speedy passage of a citizenship plan, according to interviews with lawmakers and Capitol Hill strategists, is the House. Democrats hold a wide majority there, but at least 40 members represent moderate or conservative swing districts with few Latino voters where legalization plans are unpopular and often derided as "amnesty" for lawbreakers.

"This a very, very difficult issue," said Rep. Jason Altmire, a Democrat elected in 2006 from rural western Pennsylvania. "The Democratic Party is doing everything they can to capture this very fast-growing community, and I understand that. But I'm not in that camp. I made it clear that I was going to take a very hard line on this, and my district takes a hard line."

As it won't be a smooth sail in the Senate either, even though Sen. Reid insists that he's got the votes:

But prior efforts have failed in the Senate. And with the measure's long-standing champions, Sens. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), no longer taking the lead, strategists say that success is possible only if Obama steps in.

So the more reasonable timeline is still 2011, when President Obama will need Hispanic support in swing states such as New Mexico and Nevada. Most likely the White House will start the converstation on Comprehensive Immigration Reform this year and end with just that. The Senate might even introduce a CIR bill, but eventual passage this year in both the House and Senate is a tall order.